One Trade in the Hand, And One in the Bush

As you know by now, I can never resist the opportunity to dissect a proverb.

The famous saying “one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” likely derives from falconry where the trained bird of prey was worth any number of pheasants hidden in the undergrowth. And by “any number,” I mean ten – when the proverb first appeared in English in 1530, in Hugh Rhodes’ The Boke of Nurture or Schoole of Good Maners, it read: “A byrd in hand – is worth ten flye at large.”

Now, I told you earlier this week that I’d show you when we could expect some “yellow flags” to appear in the market – and how we’ll profit when that happens.

Today I want to give you one trade “in the hand” – that is, a long trade you can deploy right away – and a further-off “bush” trade that you can use to profit a little later on, when the market hits a key support level that spells “caution.”

Once we get to that lower level (and it might be sooner than you think), we can expect to deploy a more balanced approach: instead of predominantly bullish trades, we’ll be adding in some short plays as well, like the one below.

I actually meant to include these trades in the video itself, but forgot – so here they are:

Here’s When “The Boy Who Cried ‘Bear!”‘ Will Actually Be Right

I’m sure you’re all familiar with the famous Aesop’s Fable entitled The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

In case your memory is a little rusty, a shepherd boy who was hungry for attention (and bored) called out “Wolf!” The villagers came running to help only to find no wolf at all. 

Not only did the shepherd boy deceive the people, he laughed at their angry faces. The villagers admonished the boy and told him not to cry wolf when there is no wolf around.

This little vignette was replayed several times by the attention-seeking shepherd boy.

Eventually, when a real wolf showed up, the villagers did not respond and the wolf killed a number of the shepherd boy’s sheep.

I find this story very timely because it reminds me of the attention seeking permabears that keep yelling “Bear!” at the top of their lungs. And when we run to our charts to see that the market is crashing first hand, we find that the nine-year-old bull market is doing just fine, thank you.

As if that weren’t bad enough, the permabears laugh at all those “foolish” enough to remain bearish, chastising all who can’t see the brilliance of their analysis – even if there’s not a bear in sight.

This same scenario has played out so very many times in the last nine year. Permabears continue to warn us that the top is in, that the end of the bull run is immediately upon us.

But those who have followed our methodology and logic here at The 10-Minute Millionaire have not fallen prey to the repeated shouts of “Bear!” by smarter-than-thou permabears.

Nope. We just keep following the narrative and a few straightforward but powerful tools that keep us on the right side of the market.

But that doesn’t mean that I’m a perma-bull either. Far from it. I just follow a methodology that makes it easier to make money by staying on the right side of the market and the pervasive narrative.

And I like to keep track of developments that could change our narrative and our expectation for market direction. And there are some developments that we need to keep in front of our mind – potential “caution flags” that we should watch. Let me show you what I mean

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